2009 Texas Longhorns Football Preview

One play.  One play prevented us from playing in the Big XII Championship Game and the BCS National Championship last year.  We were that close.  Don't get me wrong - I'm not dissatisfied with the season.  11-1 and Fiesta Bowl Champions, a final #4 ranking, it doesn't get much better than that.  The fact is that we are in a golden age of Longhorn football and I'm swimming in it. 

The one play was actually two plays, both in the Tech game; one where Blake Gideon dropped an easy interception that would have sealed the game and another where Gideon and Earl Thomas did their best version of "I thought you had it" as they each missed easy tackles on Michael Crabtree as he walked into the end zone for the winning touchdown.  Who here is happy to see Crabtree sucking it holding out with the 49ers?

There are maybe 5 or 6 teams out there who are good enough, with all of the elements in place, to compete for the national title this season.  Who wins it all isn't going to come down to better talent or coaching or facilities - it's going to come down to a bounce of the ball.  It's going to be one play.  We're one of those 5 or 6 teams again this year.  Let's hope we make that one play this year.

Offense

Is Colt McCoy for real?  Seriously.  NCAA record for passing efficiency?  Second in the Heisman race?  Led the team in rushing?  Wow.  Colt just needs to do what he did last year, if that's even possible.  As for the rest of the offense, losing Quan and Ogbannaya will hurt because of their leadership and poise.  But there's certainly no talent dropoff.  The receiving corps is one of the best in the country and really, really deep.  I like the Chiles move.  Dude is hungry to make a statement and show what he's got.  With G. Gilbert coming on board he knew he had no chance to see the field as a QB anyway.  You gotta feel for Sherrod Harris, but he wears the unspeakable's number 17, so I don't feel too bad about it.  Shipley is a stud at No.1 and you can't coach the chemistry he's got with McCoy.  Kirkendoll, Collins and Mal ("Mal!") Williams should assert themselves as truly elite weapons.  Other talented players could make big plays throughout the season - Dan Buckner and DeSean Hales are a couple that come to mind.

We enter the season again without a proven No. 1 running back.  Vondrell McGee takes the starting spot, and word is he's worked hard in the offseason and gotten stronger, but until he has a breakout game or is able to show consistency over a couple of games with a lot of touches, he's still not going to be the featured back.  Right now, we've got situational backs in a rotation, which is fine, just not traditional or ideal.  Cody Johnson is the big, powerful goal line back.  Fozzy is the shifty guy.  I don't expect the coaches to get much farther down the depth chart into Tre Newton, Jeremy Hills or Chris Whaley territory unless there are injuries.  The main issue with the running back is that they need to take some of the rushing pressure off of McCoy so that he doesn't take as much of a pounding this season.  I laid some of the blame for apparent indecision on who got reps at running back at the feet of Major Applewhite, but I'm not sure he was wrong.  He might've just done the best he could with the mix of personnel he had.  If I'm learning anything about football strategy is that you've got to be "multiple," which means that you've got to be flexible and effective and you've got to react quickly and effectively in changing situations; you can't get locked into a scheme or a philosophy or a player.

The O-line returns a lot of experienced guys, but we're not very deep.  They should be a steady, consistent group unless they get depleted by injuries.  If that happens, they're probably the weakest unit on the team.

The worst enemy the Horns could have on offense is injuries.  If McCoy goes down or two or three other key offensive players we're going to be looking for younger, unproven players to step up.  Mayhap they will; mayhap they won't.

Defense

It's very hard to recover from losing players like Orakpo, Melton and Roy Miller off the the front four to graduation, but Muschamp has reloaded with Kindle, Kheeston Randall and Sam Acho.  Not sure yet if they'll be as good as last year's group, but they could be.  Kindle is the next Longhorn defender to go in the first or second round of the NFL draft (and my choice for galactic gladiator representative from planet Earth).

I'm most excited about the linebackers and secondary.  Let's just hope that Dustin Earnest doesn't turn out to be a Scott Derry clone.  (I thought coaches watched a lot of film.  How does a guy that ends up chasing the ballcarrier from behind on EVERY play keep getting reps?)  Muckleroy, Norton, Emmanuel Acho and Keenan Robinson make a formidable group of headhunters.

As freshmen, Earl Thomas and Blake Gideon did about as well as you could have expected their first year (with the exception of one very, very big play).  I expect them to be even better this year.  The corners we have aren't NFL caliber, but they are fast, athletic and have shown good consistency.  Maybe one of them makes a name for themselves this year; my pick would be Aaron Williams.

Prediction

UT 56, Louisiana Monroe 10

UT 38, Wyoming 14

UT 42, Tech 28

UT 52 UTEP 13

UT 41, Colorado 17

UT 35, OU 31

UT 30, Mizzou 17

UT 42, OK St. 38

UT 52, UCF 20

UT 41, Baylor 27

UT 34, Kansas 13

UT 49, TX A&M 18

Big XII Championship:  UT 40, Nebraska 21

BCS National Championship:  UT 17, Florida 16

Other College Football

• The only start to a coaching tenure that has been worse for a major program than Rich Rodriguez's has been Lane Kiffin's.
• That last sentence was horrible.
• Charlie Weis will not be the head coach of Notre Dame next season.  Any man with a front butt that large doesn't deserve to be the head coach at America's most storied program.
• Unless he gets injured, Colt will win the Heisman.
• NFL draft order for the top three Heisman vote getters - Bradford, McCoy, Tebow.

Comments

[desertboy]

That would be an orgasm of a season.

[Ojo Rojo]

Uh, uh , oooooooooooh!!

[llogg]

Good post. Monroe making an impact at RB in the first game was a mild surprise. He may marginalize Fozzy a little bit unless the Foz can get healthy in a hurry.

With regard to the O line depth, the sole reason for this is attrition from the 2006 class. They took four OL and 2 TEs that moved to OL in that class. Webb played as a true freshman and was supposed to be the next stud LT. Unfortunately he's allergic to the classroom. Buck Burnette was supposed to bring a nasty streak to center but revealed a racist streak on facebook and had to go. Watts transferred because he wasn't Texas good. Smith has had to move back to TE. Moore is third string and Mitchell is a backup. This from the class that was supposed to be another "class of beef". If Webb and Burnette are still around, even as backups, the second team OL is Mitchell-Snow-Burnette-Allen-Webb. Not all-American, but solid. Instead there are 8 guys playing 10 spots on the two deep.

[Snake Diggity]

Multiple injuries along the lines or a serious (or ill-timed) injury to Colt are the only thing that can derail the season IMO.

I think Kansas and A&M play us closer than that, and at this point I think we beat OU worse than that.

Wierd that Mal was MIA the first game. Buckner, Monroe and Goodwin were pleasant surprises, but I was disappointed we didn't see Hales. Chiles did exactly what I thought he would. Why didn't Buckner put on the 30 lbs and become J-Mike Redux?

We already had a couple injuries along the OL (Huey, Walters) so that's a little concerning, but we should be ok. I really, REALLY don't want Ulatoski to go down.

We're thin at LB, but we only use 2 so we should be ok.

Every one of our top 8 DBs will play in the NFL. Even the 2 white dudes.

[Ojo Rojo]

Llogg, excellent point on our O-line depth.

Running backs: Vondrell really hurt himself with the fumbles. With so many dudes salivating over an opportunity, you almost can't make mistakes and continue to get playing time. Brown said in his mid-week press conference that Tre Newton was going to get more looks this week. Could mean Vondrell is buffed. Since we're starting conference play so early, they've got to solidify the position now. This week's game might determine who the real players are for the rest of the season.

The contributions of Vaccaro, Marquise Goodwin and D.J. Monroe were surprises from the game (pleasant). Also liked that Calvin Howell got in and did well. Gilbert looked pretty good. Lack of contribution from Kindle and the turnovers were troubling. Explain those away by the type of offense they ran that didn't allow for many sacks to happen and first game jitters.

Snake - OU is looking pretty screwed right now with Bradford down and Gresham out for the year. Oh, and they already have a loss. To BYU. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!! It's 1pm and OU still sux!! No sympathy here, toothless yokelohomans. With any luck, this signifies the decline of the OU program, the end of the Stoops era and a period of dominance in recruiting by UT that OU will never recover from and they become like Notre Dame and Miami - teams that were good once.

Disagree that all 8 of our DBs will play NFL. Earl Thomas and Gideon might. The Browns - no. Too early to tell on Aaron Williams and the others because they haven't been on the field enough. Glad Beasley is gone. Dude was way overrated. He wasn't 17unspeakable bad, but he wasn't good either.

[llogg]

Earl, Gideon, Chykie, A. Williams are probable for the NFL. Curtis Brown is a good enough athlete and still has two years to pull it together, so he's a maybe. If Scott can make it back from the academic issues and get on the field enough to show what he can do, he's also a maybe (just hasn't played enough). I'll be pretty surprised if Brewer doesn't get spun down to LB before his career is done at UT. Wouldn't expect him to be NFL material. Not sure who the 8th guy is with Beasley out. Ben Wells? Vaccaro? Clark Ford?

Newton is not going to push for the starting RB spot. He's the new Brett Robin. Until Fozzy gets healthy or Cody Johnson gets fit Vondrell is the starter. He's not been a fumbler in the past and I think these two were an aberration. If he runs like he did to start the third quarter for the rest of the season, he'll be hard to unseat.

Any more injuries to the line and they're screwed. Esp since Walters injury may be more serious than initially reported (was seen in plaster cast on campus per anonymous internet tool).

Buckner needs to add the weight and slide down to full time TE, but he's second on the team for "most needed weight gain". Number one is Luke f'in Poehlmann. You're an offensive lineman at the University of by-God Texas. You can't weigh 265 pounds in your second year of the program. He needs to talk to Greg Smith about packing on the pounds because the Horns may need him sooner rather than later.

[Snake Diggity]

Maybe I was hasty in saying top 8, but I will bet my left testy that Chykie Brown plays in the NFL. Aaron Williams, Earl Thomas, and Blake Gideon are all on track. Curtis Brown will too. Scott and Wells are long shots at this point, but still have time. I would say Brewster will at least get a chance in the league because of his dad's connections. I mean, Kyle f'n Shanahan played on a practice squad.

One thing is that a transition period in both UT and OU's programs appears imminent. We will be handing things over to Muschamp in 2 or 3 years and I just don't see Stoops staying at OU very much longer (whether he gets fired or hired away remains to be seen). That will be interesting to see how it affects each programs status and the state of the rivalry. Hopefully OU becomes early 90's Stroman and we become Wilkinson's Sooners.

[Ojo Rojo]

I think they're projecting Buckner to be the next in the line of Roy Williams, Sweed. The tall, lanky, NFL prototype No. 1 receiver. Even though the great need at TE, I think they would rather do without a receiving tight end (we did it last year, no problem) and go with extra wides or develop a better running game to compensate.

What is Mason Walters' injury? Do you mean Huey? Walters is still listed second on the depth chart at right guard. I think we could lose two guys and still be okay on the O-line. Walters, Britt Mitchell and Tray Allen are the next backups. Allen projected as the next stud until they moved him to D-line. I think we're fine.

Vondrell's fumbles might have been uncharacteristic, but I'm not sold on the dude overall. I'd just like to see someone emerge as that go-to guy. D.J. is probably too small to get 20 carries a game. I think they like Cody at the weight he's at. He'll be strictly a short yardage/goal line guy his entire career. I made the Tre Newton comment based on some of the things that Mack said in his press conferences this week. I think they're going to get him a few touches and see how he responds. That, coupled with Vondrell's fumbles and the comments made by Mack about it and the depth at the position and the fact that they don't want Colt rushing all tells me that they are still looking for someone to be the guy.

[llogg]

Nope, talking about Walters: http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/longhorns/entries/2009/09/08/walters_out_for.html
Anonymous internet tool says Walters has a stress fracture similar to an injury he had in high school.

re:Buckner-- Roy was big and fast as hell. Limas was bigger with decent speed. Buckner is big and not fast at all. Finley got moved to TE b/c he wasn't fast enough at WR and I'd probably take him in a foot race with Buckner.

re:RBs-- Cody's weight is okay as long as he's ripped. Dude is kind of soft in the middle though. At 240 he's an NFL quality TB. At 255 he's Jorvorskie Lane, the good years. Any bigger and he's sliding the same way Lane did.
I've always like Vondrell more than most. He's a very good all around back. His first couple years he wasn't great blocking/blitz pickup or receiving out of the backfield, but I think he's improved. Like I said, if he runs like he did to open the third quarter he'll be very good this year. If he runs like the first half then Fozzy will pass him the minute he's healthy (or Cody will). Newton has gotten some good press, but I just don't buy him as anything other than 3rd down back who will pick up blitzers, catch a shovel pass, or take a draw for 2 yards less than is needed. He's a Brett Robin starter kit. I do think D.J. should get the ball more.

[Snake Diggity]

I don't have a problem with having specialists at RB instead of one stud. The problem comes if they each don't excel at their specialty.

Cody is a superb short yardage back; he's the only proven commodity IMO. Vondrell has not proven to be a fantastic runner on 1st and 2nd downs. Newton/Fozzy are totally unproven as the long yardage (3rd down) back. Monroe (at least through one game) seems to be an excellent change of pace back. Luckily our passing attack is badass enough that we don't have to be able to get 4 yards consistently on the ground on 1st and 2nd down, and we are deep enough at receiver that we may not have to have a good receiving back.

[llogg]

Fozzy's not a 3rd down back. He's much more an every down back. See the run at 00:45 here:
http://videos.utexasclan.com/view.php?id=7097
People forget that Fozzy looked good running between the tackles when healthy last year. He's capable just fragile.

[llogg]

Also, I wouldn't mind specialists at RB if it didn't telegraph what play would be run just based on personnel.