2008 Texas Longhorns Football Preview

Some years I'm really into it; some years I'm not.  This in one of those years that I'm into it.  (That noise in the background is my fiance' sighing.)

Overview

Most predictions from the so-called "experts" out there seem to be selling Texas short.  They have the 'Horns finishing behind OU and Tech in the Big XII South.  That's fine.  In fact, it's more than fine.  Although Texas can't ever really sneak up on anyone, I think being underestimated and overlooked is good for a team's MOJO early in the season.  They can play loose since the high expectations aren't there and build confidence like you should - by getting better and winning.

Let's face it, this team has some...unknowns.  (The experts out there call them "weaknesses.")  We have no proven tailback, deep threat wide receiver or tight end.  Our QB is coming off a season where he had far too many turnovers (25 to be exact, 18 INT's and 7 fumbles).  On defense we're replacing both safeties to compliment our already weak corners.  But that's the bad news.

The good news is that we have a stable of talented running backs, any one of whom could (and likely will) prove themselves to be the next great Texas back.  Colt has one more year under his belt and we've got youngsters who could easily fill the big play receiver role.  Plus, with the addition of Muschamp to an already strong defense, you've got the makings for something special defensively.

Running Backs

Vondrell McGee and Foswhitt Whitaker get the first chance to be the guy.  Word is that Whitaker is looking good in early fall drills.  Ogbannaya is probably third on the depth chart, but if it gets down to him I would expect one of the three freshmen to be given a chance.

Receiver

While we don't have that Roy Williams-Limas Sweed type of receiver (yet), we do have two solids in Quan Cosby and Jordan Shipley.  Both have made big plays in their careers, but neither has the stature or speed to simply dominate a DB one on one.  That said, they are both sure-handed and they know how to make plays to win games.  Believe it or not, Quan Cosby will probably get more touches per game than any other player besides Colt, albeit because of his kick and punt returning duties.  I don't know that you look at an offense that runs through Quan Cosby as dominant, but the guy quietly gets the job done.  He's just solid as a rock.  Promisingly, there are 2 or 3 guys (Montre Webber, Malcolm Williams, Dan Buckner) who could be the next big play receiver at Texas.

Tight End

Irby and Ullman have been serviceable, but a definite step down from the athleticism of Jermichael Finley.  I don't think we can can't on the tight end position to do anything spectacular, but they'll be solid.

Quarterback

With the unproven situation at running back, one solution may be to run more with the quarterback.  Enter John Chiles.  Although not the gazelle that The Messiah VY was, he is a proven runner in my book.  While it's always dangerous to switch out quarterbacks (potential for QB controversy, interrupts continuity and rythm), I think expanding JC's role in the offense would be a good thing.  I also look for Colt to improve his turnover numbers this season.  No reason, really, other than I believe he suffered a bit of a sophomore slump and I just think the guy is a winner and will improve.

O-Line

When I think of this year's offensive line I get a warm feeling inside.  They are big, experienced and deep.  And only one of them is a senior!  Ulatoski and Dockery could be early round NFL picks.  This should be one of the strengths of the team.

D-Line

Losing Okan and Lokey hurts but with Houston moving to tackle from end and Roy Miller returning I don't expect a dropoff.  We're not real deep at tackle, but with Houston's better speed and agility than the tackles in the Casey Hampton mold we've had the last few years, we should get a better pass rush.  Defensive end is probably the strongest position talent- and depth-wise on the entire roster.  Orakpo is getting a lot of attention.  People are saying that his numbers weren't great last year because of injury, and that's probably accurate, but he may not even be the best end we've got.  Eddie Jones is the likely other starter and he has shown Derrick Johnson-esque ballhawking ability at times.  Sam Acho and the enigmatic Henry Melton are the backups and they'd start just about anywhere else.  Melton, especially, could be great.  I don't know of a better example of athleticism and size.

Linebackers

When I think of this year's linebacking corps I get a broad grin on my face.  "Animals" "Beasts" and  "Savages" accurately describe these badasses.  If I had to send an emissary from Earth to an intergalactic gladiator ring, I would send Sergio Kindle.  Megads that dude is a specimen!  Bobino has been a solid middle linebacker and it seems like he's been starting forever.  Muckleroy has also proven himself.  Jared Norton might be the best of the bunch.  Keenan Robinson is the next monster.  Muschamp must have licked his chops over these guys when he was considering taking the job.

Secondary

This group scares me.  I've never been a Beasley fan.  Palmer is Foster light.  We don't have that Jammer/Vasher/Griffin/Ross lockdown corner this year and it could prove to be the team's biggest weakness.  Throw in two inexperienced safeties in Ben Wells and Earl Thomas and you could have the makings of a disaster.  I'm still optimistic that the corners will be good enough.  Maybe Beasley will improve and live up to the hype I never understood for someone as small as he is.  Thomas has gotten good reviews in practice and there are really athletic guys two and three deep, so you never know.  I pray Muschamp's influence overcomes this unit's weaknesses.

Special Teams

Kicker and punter are locked down and solid.  Coach Mike Tolleson always seems to do a good job and I don't expect anything different this season.

Predictions

#10 Texas 48, Florida Atlantic 10

#10 Texas 52, UTEP 18

#10 Texas 33, Arkansas 20

#8 Texas 60, Rice 13

#8 Texas 24, Colorado 21

#7 Texas 18, Oklahoma 14

Missouri 36, #3 Texas 20

#9 Texas 52, Oklahoma State 35

Texas Tech 45, #9 Texas 21

#14 Texas 51, Baylor 17

#14 Texas 42, Kansas 13

#10 Texas 28, Texas A&M 12

Big XII Championship:  #10 Texas 35, Missouri 27

Fiesta Bowl:  #6 Texas 28, Wisconsin 20

Record:  12-2, Final Ranking:  #4

Comments

[Snake Diggity]

Very good, and imo, accurate writeup.

Excellent and rarely talked about point with regards to weaknesses vs unknowns. With top tier schools, you can never truly count them out if they experienced lines. Backs can play at a high level as true freshmen, so schools that recruit like Texas does will never be known to be "weak" until they hit the field for a game or two.

I think Colt has an excellent year, as does Chiles. I expect, believe it or not, our offense to look a lot like Arkansas' last year. Chiles = McFadden (Chiles can NOT throw well), Colt= Case Dick, and McGee/Fozzy= Felix Jones. Totally agree about not worrying about RB skill. Too many highly ranked RB recruits.

Agree wholeheartedly about both lines.

LMAO @ Kindle. Makes you think; what if UFC was as popular as football? Some of these dudes would be bad mofos in an octagon.

Count me as one who expects Beasley to have a breakout year. Also look for Sam Acho, Earl Thomas, and Ben Wells to emerge on D, and DeSean Hales, Mal Williams, Cody Johnson, and Josh Marshall on O.

Kicker is totally set, but punter is an unknown. Gerland has been inconsistent, and no one else has punted before.

Your predictions are as good as any I would make. I think we lose to OU and one other, but we finish in the top 10 and win a BCS bowl. MNC next year.

God damn I love college football.

[llogg]

Agree for the most part. I think Fozzy and McGee will both prove to be very good RBs, though I'm personally pulling for Fozzy to dominate just because of his name.

As a whole I think the offense will improve this year, even with the loss of Charles and Finley. (I don't count Sweed as a loss since he missed most of the season anyway.) The reason is that the line will be much better. Better line = better offense. Also anticipate fewer turnovers from Colt.

I doubt I'll live to see another Roy Williams-level receiver at Texas, but reports are that Malcolm Williams will do an admirable Sweed impression this year.

The only WTF I have about the offense is Brandon Collins. He seems to be the guy you hear a lot about, but watching videos of practices and his limited game time last year I end up scratching my head. His body is like a middle-schooler compared to the men he's competing with.

Defensively I expect they will give up a lot of big plays in the secondary but be very stout against the run. With improved speed at linebacker I also expect to see better pass coverage from those guys as well as more effective blitzing. The loss of Killebrew and Derry improve the defense by +5000. I'm hopeful that Chykie or Curtis Brown can be a lockdown corner. I'm a Beasley fan, but watching an interview with him shows he is straight ghetto.

I would nominate Orakpo for first alternate/tag team partner for Intergalactic Ultimate Fight Club.

On a side note, my bold (and not so much with the boldness) predictions:
Texas wins Big12 South, loses to Colorado in CCG.
Baylor beat TAMU.
TAMU will not be bowl eligible at the end of the year.
Michael Goodson will declare early for the NFL.
Tech will lose three games.
Arkansas will suck.
Ole Miss will make a little noise.
Oregon will suck.
Jake Locker is this year's Matt Groethe.
McKnight from USC will win the Heisman.

[allbilly]

Do you guys ever bet on these games?

[Ojo Rojo]

Billy - I have a personal oath not to ever bet on sports. I enjoy sports enough as it is, especially college football, so that I don't need any extra "spice" or whatever to make it interesting. It's still pure for me; money on the line would end up ruining it.

I forgot to say that I think another thing that will aid the secondary situation is that Muschamp is known for his propensity to blitz and his effective blitzing schemes. Blitzing is as effective of a pass defense as good DBs who stay in tight coverage. With the ends and LBs we've got, it could get scary for opposing QBs. Of course, there are offensive plays designed to combat the blitz - draws and screens - so then it becomes a chess match where the coaches have to guess correctly.

[allbilly]

It just seems to me that with so much thought and analysis...something more should come of it all.

I'm glad you used "pure" and "college football" in separate sentences.

I have bet on sports in the past, but rarely on college. too much emotion and dumb 19 year olds. Pro sports...whole nother deal.

[Ojo Rojo]

Yeah, MY experience with CF is still pure. CF is no longer pure, though more so than the pros.

[llogg]

betting on sports would make it far less fun for me. just not a gambling man.

[Snake Diggity]

I've bet before, but NEVER EVER EVER on Texas.